Atlanta Dream · 37 completed regular-season games · next model game against Portland Fire on Fri, Aug 28, 4:30 PM PT.
Matchup-adjusted output, kept separate from the completed-game season profile.
Solid line is the game-by-game trend, dashed line the season average, and the ringed dot at the right edge is the next-game projection.
Raw makes and misses, frequency heat, efficiency heat, shot mix, and zone conversion.
The zone model feeds the points and 3PM projections for the next listed game.
Sample: 37 games and 522 attempts. Last game: 20260824.
Source unavailable
Sort any column, filter home or away and result, and open the opponent or completed matchup.
| Aug 24 | Los Angeles Sparks | Away | W 78-71 | 31 | 18 | 6 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 7-21 | 2-12 | +9 |
| Aug 22 | Phoenix Mercury | Away | W 99-89 | 38 | 20 | 3 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 7-14 | 4-11 | +6 |
| Aug 20 | Los Angeles Sparks | Away | W 124-88 | 25 | 26 | 3 | 5 | 3 | 0 | 9-15 | 5-8 | +29 |
| Aug 18 | Las Vegas Aces | Away | W 97-82 | 39 | 23 | 4 | 3 | 4 | 2 | 7-19 | 2-8 | +12 |
| Aug 16 | Indiana Fever | Home | L 91-95 | 43 | 17 | 0 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 4-13 | 1-8 | +2 |
| Aug 13 | Connecticut Sun | Away | W 104-69 | 29 | 29 | 5 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 7-10 | 5-8 | +31 |
| Aug 10 | Toronto Tempo | Home | W 107-95 | 36 | 22 | 4 | 7 | 3 | 1 | 7-15 | 6-11 | +10 |
| Aug 7 | Washington Mystics | Away | L 74-79 | 31 | 19 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 6-18 | 4-9 | -2 |
| Aug 5 | Phoenix Mercury | Home | W 96-82 | 33 | 23 | 6 | 8 | 2 | 1 | 6-13 | 5-9 | +13 |
| Aug 3 | Las Vegas Aces | Home | L 87-109 | 33 | 19 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 7-13 | 3-7 | -22 |
| Jul 31 | Seattle Storm | Home | W 98-89 | 35 | 9 | 2 | 5 | 4 | 3 | 3-13 | 3-9 | +2 |
| Jul 29 | Dallas Wings | Away | W 82-81 | 32 | 9 | 5 | 5 | 3 | 0 | 3-10 | 1-4 | +9 |
| Jul 19 | Chicago Sky | Home | W 93-91 | 35 | 11 | 6 | 6 | 0 | 3 | 4-11 | 3-8 | +3 |
| Jul 17 | Toronto Tempo | Away | W 111-92 | 31 | 10 | 4 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 4-13 | 0-7 | +19 |
| Jul 13 | Los Angeles Sparks | Home | W 101-92 | 34 | 11 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 4-10 | 3-7 | +3 |
| Jul 11 | Portland Fire | Home | L 92-102 | 31 | 10 | 3 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 3-9 | 2-8 | -11 |
| Jul 9 | Seattle Storm | Home | W 89-78 | 35 | 19 | 4 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 6-14 | 4-11 | +7 |
| Jul 4 | Golden State Valkyries | Home | L 83-88 | 37 | 19 | 5 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 6-15 | 4-11 | -4 |
| Jul 2 | Washington Mystics | Away | L 76-81 | 38 | 24 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 0 | 8-20 | 5-13 | -4 |
| Jun 27 | Seattle Storm | Away | L 90-105 | 38 | 27 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 10-17 | 4-10 | -17 |
| Jun 26 | Golden State Valkyries | Away | L 75-78 | 36 | 9 | 5 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 2-16 | 1-8 | -6 |
| Jun 24 | Golden State Valkyries | Away | L 66-77 | 31 | 12 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 5-11 | 1-5 | -23 |
| Jun 22 | Toronto Tempo | Home | W 94-87 | 32 | 20 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 7-17 | 5-11 | +5 |
| Jun 20 | Indiana Fever | Home | W 113-96 | 35 | 24 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 6-15 | 4-10 | +16 |
| Jun 18 | Indiana Fever | Away | W 108-101 | 38 | 16 | 4 | 6 | 3 | 1 | 6-12 | 1-3 | +4 |
| Jun 14 | Toronto Tempo | Away | W 102-77 | 38 | 24 | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 9-18 | 4-11 | +26 |
| Jun 11 | New York Liberty | Home | L 90-104 | 36 | 24 | 4 | 3 | 4 | 1 | 7-18 | 5-13 | -12 |
| Jun 9 | Chicago Sky | Away | W 82-75 | 36 | 17 | 3 | 5 | 3 | 0 | 7-17 | 1-10 | +8 |
| Jun 6 | Washington Mystics | Home | W 109-77 | 21 | 19 | 0 | 3 | 6 | 1 | 6-11 | 4-7 | +18 |
| Jun 4 | Indiana Fever | Away | L 71-83 | 37 | 8 | 4 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 2-9 | 2-5 | -9 |
| Jun 2 | Connecticut Sun | Home | W 91-75 | 37 | 36 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 12-24 | 8-19 | +18 |
| May 29 | Portland Fire | Away | W 86-66 | 34 | 14 | 2 | 4 | 6 | 0 | 5-11 | 4-7 | +19 |
| May 27 | Minnesota Lynx | Away | L 81-96 | 36 | 10 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 4-14 | 2-8 | -12 |
| May 24 | Phoenix Mercury | Home | W 82-80 | 34 | 21 | 8 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 7-15 | 6-12 | +2 |
| May 22 | Dallas Wings | Home | W 86-69 | 35 | 25 | 4 | 8 | 4 | 2 | 7-12 | 2-3 | +18 |
| May 12 | Dallas Wings | Away | W 77-72 | 37 | 14 | 3 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3-14 | 1-9 | +4 |
| May 9 | Minnesota Lynx | Away | W 91-90 | 38 | 15 | 6 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 4-10 | 3-7 | +5 |
Every game and opponent links back into the research graph.
| 2026-08-28-por-atl | Portland Fire | Fri, Aug 28, 4:30 PM PT | starter | 34.0 | 18.2 | 3.4 | 3.4 | 3.3 | 25.0 |
Points, rebounds, assists, 3PM, and derived PRA from the board snapshot remain visible, linked, sortable, and filterable.
Over 18.5: model 18.4 vs RotoWire 17.9 vs internal injury model 18.2. shot zones +0.3, injury/rotation +0.3, 34.0 projected minutes, calibrated cover probability 49.7%, EV +0.028 units per unit risked, price-supported over despite model-line delta -0.07.
Projection context: model 3.3 vs RotoWire 3.1 vs internal injury model 3.4. shot zones +0.1, injury/rotation -0.0, 34.0 projected minutes, calibrated cover probability 45.6%, EV -0.060 units per unit risked.
| Short writeup | ||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| — | POR @ ATLAug 28, 2026 | Rhyne Howard · ATL | PTS | 18.4 | 17.9 | +0.3 | +9.0 | +22.4 | +7.1 | +0.3 | 18.5+107 | over ATLArchived pre-tip evidence | -0.1 | 49.7%Market 48.3% | +0.028u+2.8% model ROI | Underdog Fantasy | Positive-EV over at captured price | Over 18.5: model 18.4 vs RotoWire 17.9 vs internal injury model 18.2. shot zones +0.3, injury/rotation +0.3, 34.0 projected minutes, calibrated cover probability 49.7%, EV +0.028 units per unit risked, price-supported over despite model-line delta -0.07. |
| — | POR @ ATLAug 28, 2026 | Rhyne Howard · ATL | 3PM | 3.3 | 3.1 | +0.1 | +9.0 | +22.4 | +7.1 | -0.0 | 3.5+106 | No leanArchived pre-tip evidence | -0.2 | 45.6%Market 48.5% | -0.060u-6.0% model ROI | Draftkings | Market matches model | Projection context: model 3.3 vs RotoWire 3.1 vs internal injury model 3.4. shot zones +0.1, injury/rotation -0.0, 34.0 projected minutes, calibrated cover probability 45.6%, EV -0.060 units per unit risked. |