Connecticut Sun · 34 completed regular-season games · next model game against Indiana Fever on Fri, Aug 28, 4:30 PM PT.
Matchup-adjusted output, kept separate from the completed-game season profile.
Solid line is the game-by-game trend, dashed line the season average, and the ringed dot at the right edge is the next-game projection.
Raw makes and misses, frequency heat, efficiency heat, shot mix, and zone conversion.
The zone model feeds the points and 3PM projections for the next listed game.
Sort any column, filter home or away and result, and open the opponent or completed matchup.
| Aug 26 | Golden State Valkyries | Home | L 64-89 | 21 | 7 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2-4 | 1-2 | -22 |
| Aug 25 | Chicago Sky | Home | W 87-81 | 29 | 7 | 4 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 3-10 | 1-3 | +10 |
| Aug 22 | Los Angeles Sparks | Away | L 68-77 | 28 | 14 | 3 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 5-11 | 1-3 | -2 |
| Aug 20 | Las Vegas Aces | Away | L 78-101 | 24 | 8 | 7 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 3-8 | 0-1 | -9 |
| Aug 18 | Los Angeles Sparks | Home | W 85-77 | 25 | 11 | 4 | 3 | 4 | 0 | 5-13 | 0-2 | -3 |
| Aug 15 | New York Liberty | Home | L 75-82 | 21 | 6 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 2-5 | 0-0 | -2 |
| Aug 13 | Atlanta Dream | Home | L 69-104 | 20 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 1-8 | 0-2 | -15 |
| Aug 7 | Phoenix Mercury | Home | W 75-72 | 17 | 4 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 2-6 | 0-1 | -2 |
| Aug 2 | Dallas Wings | Away | L 63-83 | 17 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0-6 | 0-2 | -13 |
| Jul 30 | Chicago Sky | Away | L 88-94 | 21 | 5 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 2-6 | 1-1 | -1 |
| Jul 28 | Washington Mystics | Away | L 84-92 | 21 | 11 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 4-10 | 0-2 | -4 |
| Jul 22 | Indiana Fever | Away | L 88-123 | 27 | 13 | 2 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 6-14 | 0-2 | -19 |
| Jul 17 | Phoenix Mercury | Away | W 96-83 | 14 | 6 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 3-6 | 0-1 | +4 |
| Jul 8 | Minnesota Lynx | Home | L 80-86 | 9 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 2-5 | 0-2 | +5 |
| Jul 6 | Minnesota Lynx | Away | W 90-89 | 16 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1-4 | 0-1 | -8 |
| Jul 2 | Dallas Wings | Home | L 83-86 | 13 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1-3 | 0-0 | -4 |
| Jun 22 | Chicago Sky | Home | W 92-63 | 13 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0-2 | 0-0 | +17 |
| Jun 19 | Toronto Tempo | Home | L 97-101 | 21 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 1-4 | 1-3 | -11 |
| Jun 17 | Washington Mystics | Home | L 81-88 | 21 | 6 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3-7 | 0-2 | -8 |
| Jun 13 | Indiana Fever | Home | L 75-85 | 27 | 9 | 3 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 4-10 | 1-4 | -5 |
| Jun 10 | Toronto Tempo | Away | L 102-106 | 35 | 12 | 7 | 7 | 1 | 2 | 3-11 | 2-5 | +4 |
| Jun 8 | New York Liberty | Home | L 80-89 | 29 | 12 | 5 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 6-15 | 0-2 | -12 |
| Jun 5 | Chicago Sky | Away | L 80-85 | 23 | 14 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 6-9 | 1-2 | -3 |
| Jun 2 | Atlanta Dream | Away | L 75-91 | 29 | 11 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 4-6 | 1-1 | -5 |
| May 30 | Los Angeles Sparks | Home | W 84-81 | 29 | 9 | 0 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 4-10 | 0-1 | +6 |
| May 27 | Portland Fire | Away | L 61-71 | 23 | 7 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 3-11 | 0-3 | -10 |
| May 25 | Golden State Valkyries | Away | L 70-97 | 22 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0-8 | 0-3 | -16 |
| May 22 | Seattle Storm | Away | L 59-77 | 21 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1-6 | 0-1 | -17 |
| May 20 | Seattle Storm | Away | W 80-78 | 13 | 2 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 1-1 | 0-0 | +19 |
| May 18 | Portland Fire | Away | L 82-83 | 28 | 9 | 3 | 6 | 4 | 0 | 4-8 | 0-3 | 0 |
| May 15 | Las Vegas Aces | Home | L 94-101 | 28 | 14 | 3 | 7 | 2 | 1 | 5-12 | 2-6 | -2 |
| May 13 | Las Vegas Aces | Home | L 69-98 | 30 | 8 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 2-11 | 0-1 | -19 |
| May 10 | Seattle Storm | Home | L 82-89 | 20 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 1-8 | 0-2 | -22 |
| May 8 | New York Liberty | Away | L 75-106 | 26 | 5 | 2 | 6 | 0 | 1 | 2-6 | 0-1 | -27 |
Every game and opponent links back into the research graph.
| 2026-08-28-con-ind | Indiana Fever | Fri, Aug 28, 4:30 PM PT | starter | 29.8 | 8.9 | 3.1 | 3.8 | 0.3 | 15.8 |
Points, rebounds, assists, 3PM, and derived PRA from the board snapshot remain visible, linked, sortable, and filterable.
Projection context: model 9.3 vs RotoWire 9.9 vs internal injury model 8.9. shot zones +0.2, injury/rotation +0.2, 29.8 projected minutes, calibrated cover probability 49.2%, EV -0.080 units per unit risked.
Over 3.5: model 3.0 vs RotoWire 3.7 vs internal injury model 3.2. shot zones +0.0, injury/rotation +0.0, rebound matchup grade -12.4, 29.8 projected minutes, calibrated cover probability 43.9%, EV +0.066 units per unit risked, price-supported over despite model-line delta -0.47.
Projection context: model 0.3 vs RotoWire 0.8 vs internal injury model 0.4. shot zones -0.0, injury/rotation -0.1, 29.8 projected minutes.
| Short writeup | ||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| — | CON @ INDAug 28, 2026 | Saniya Rivers · CON | PTS | 9.3 | 9.9 | +0.2 | +8.0 | -31.8 | -12.4 | +0.2 | 9.5-115 | No leanArchived pre-tip evidence | -0.1 | 49.2%Market 53.5% | -0.080u-8.0% model ROI | Underdog Fantasy | Market matches model | Projection context: model 9.3 vs RotoWire 9.9 vs internal injury model 8.9. shot zones +0.2, injury/rotation +0.2, 29.8 projected minutes, calibrated cover probability 49.2%, EV -0.080 units per unit risked. |
| — | CON @ INDAug 28, 2026 | Saniya Rivers · CON | REB | 3.0 | 3.7 | 0.0 | +8.0 | -31.8 | -12.4 | 0.0 | 3.5+143 | over CONArchived pre-tip evidence | -0.5 | 43.9%Market 41.2% | +0.066u+6.6% model ROI | Underdog Fantasy | Positive-EV over at captured price | Over 3.5: model 3.0 vs RotoWire 3.7 vs internal injury model 3.2. shot zones +0.0, injury/rotation +0.0, rebound matchup grade -12.4, 29.8 projected minutes, calibrated cover probability 43.9%, EV +0.066 units per unit risked, price-supported over despite model-line delta -0.47. |
| — | CON @ INDAug 28, 2026 | Saniya Rivers · CON | 3PM | 0.3 | 0.8 | -0.0 | +8.0 | -31.8 | -12.4 | -0.1 | Not posted | Projection onlyArchived pre-tip evidence | — | — | —Captured price needed | Waiting | Projection only | Projection context: model 0.3 vs RotoWire 0.8 vs internal injury model 0.4. shot zones -0.0, injury/rotation -0.1, 29.8 projected minutes. |
Sample: 34 games and 260 attempts. Last game: 20260826.
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